The Pasteur Institute warns that avian flu, especially the H5N1 strain, could lead to a pandemic worse than Covid-19 if it mutates to spread easily among people.
Since 2021, H5N1 has caused many deaths in wild and farmed birds. In 2024, it was also found in dairy cows in the USA, with a few human cases and one death. WHO data since 2003 shows nearly 1,000 human infections from avian flu strains, with almost half of those infected dying.
Ramey-Velti from the Pasteur Institute stresses that the biggest risk is the virus adapting to humans. The H5 avian flu is not in the community, so most people lack protective antibodies. Unlike Covid-19, it can impact even young and healthy individuals.
Although WHO sees the pandemic risk as “low,” experts call for readiness. The EU has already ordered hundreds of thousands of doses of pre-pandemic vaccine, and there are stocks of effective antivirals. If human-to-human transmission happens, vaccine development should be quicker than for Covid-19.
